management coping problem in emergency situations - II [1]

 

Foreseen and unforeseen emergencies

A usual intention is to be as prepared as possible. Planning and training are aimed to prepare for a wide range of emergencies. Experience shows two things.

 The first is that people have difficulties in anticipating the worst cases. It seems as if people for different reasons often are not capable of imagining drastic and bad situations.  Therefore planning and training often are too limited.

 The other is that emergencies do not develop exactly as the emergency planning presupposes.

 The conclusion is that the capacity to shape the management in the specific situation determined by the specific emergency is very important. Three main domains can be seen as basic conditions in shaping the management of the specific  situation.

 The first is the planning and the preparedness. This domain can be more or less developed. Well done and up-to-date planning and preparedness are a good condition to start from. In this there is training too.

 The second is knowledge of the emergency as a more or less dynamic or static situation, of the management as a process and of the resources.

 The third is the emergency and its specific characteristics.

 The central core of the management coping problem

The central core of the reasoning is that the solution to the management problems in a specific emergency depends on

1) the quality of the planning and the preparedness,

2)the state of the knowledge and understanding of different emergency types and of the processes of emergency management, and

3) the type, extent, dynamics and complexity of the specific emergency.

The coping problem is to make an optimal solution based on these three conditions.

 The basic idea is that planning can be performed separately from and before the course of events for which the planning is intended. The sequence is planning, implementing and following up.

 When an emergency occurs and emergency management has to start there is another basic condition for the planning. The dynamic of the real world and the interaction with this has already started when the management and its planning processes start.  The idea of the management process is the sequence of sizing up, countering and following up.

 Emergency management consists of partly the pre-emergency planning and preparation processes (based on the assumptions of the sequence of planning, implementing and following up), and partly of the ad hoc coping processes as an answer to the occurred emergency (based on the assumptions of the sequence of sizing up, countering and following up).

...

REFERENCES:

[1] Lars Fredholm, Emergency management as co-ordinated cognitive modelling on different time-scales

Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Sweden, Report 3111, Lund 1999

 

yönetimin acil durumların üstesinden gelebilmesi problemi - I [1]

 

Arka zemin, sorun ve hedef

Background, problem and aim

Başlangıç aşamasının altından kalkabilmek yönetim hakimiyeti kurmak için hayati bir koşuldur  ve  ileride yönetimin  acil durum ya da felaketi nasıl ele alcağını belirler.

Coping with the initial phase seems to be a critical condition in establishing management and how the management continues to deal with the emergency or the disaster.

Bu problemin ana nedeni; acil durum ya da felaketin dinamikleri ile ilgili olarak gerekli öngörü, bütünsel başa çıkma, ve uzun dönemli yönetimin çok geç olarak oluşturulmasıdır.

The main reason for the problem is that necessary anticipation, totality coping and longterm management are established too late in relation to the dynamics of the emergency or disaster. Connected to this there are two specific problems.

Büyük, hiç görülmemiş  acil durum veya felaket gelişmelerini  öngörmek zordur ve yönetim adımları çok geç oluşturulur.

The first is that it seems difficult to anticipate drastic, unforeseen developments of an emergency or disaster and that the management steps are established too late.

Karar vericiler kısa dönemdeki  görülebilir olayların içinde kaybolur ve dakikalık kararlar verirler.

The second is that decision makers seem to be absorbed with visible problems in a short term and carry out decision making minute by minute....

Farklı çeşit acil durumlarla başa çıkma

Coping with different kinds of emergencies

Acil durumların dinamikleri üç gruba ayrılabilir.

The dynamics of emergencies can be divided into three main categories(Fredholm 1991).

Dinamik durumlar çok hızlı değişiklikler ve çoğunlukla genişleyen gelişmelerle belirir.  Yangın tipik bir dinamik durumdur.

Dynamic states are characterised by rapid changes and mostly by expanding developments. A fire is a typical dynamic state.

Kararsız durgun durumlar başa çıkma süreci başladığı zamanki sakinlik içindeki durumlarla belirlenir.

Aceleci bir hareket değişken ve gelişen bir süreci başlatabilir.  Sakinlik kararsız bir denge durumudur.  Bir heyelandan sonraki operasyon böyle bir durumdur.

Unstable static states are characterised by situations in stillness when the coping process starts. A rash move can start a changing and developing process. The stillness is a kind of an unstable equilibrium. An operation after a landslide is such a situation. 

Genellikle, dinamik aşama acil durum yönetimi başlamadan önce oluşur.

 The dynamic phase has usually already occurred when the emergency management starts.

Kararlı durgun durumlar  baş etme başladıktan sonraki sakinlik durumu ile belirlenir.  Yine de kararlı bir denge durumu vardır.

Stable static states are also characterised by situations in stillness when the coping process starts.   There is however a stable equilibrium.

Farklı karar verme ihtiyaçları

Different decision making demands

Bu üç ana acil durum sınıfları farklı karar verme ihtiyaçları doğurur.

These three main categories of emergencies involve different decision making demands.

Dinamik aşamalar en çok stres yapıcı durumları oluşturur.  Karar verme güçlü zaman baskısı altındadır.  Sıkklıkla öne çıkan bir taktik hedef genişleyen gelişmeyi durdurmaktır.  Hayatları kurtarmak çok çabukça yapılmalıdır.

The dynamic states comprise the most stressful situations. The decision making is under strong time pressure. An important tactical aim is often to stop the expanding development. Saving lives has to be done rapidly.

Kararsız durgun aşamalar tedbir  ve hareket etmeden önce uzun bir zaman planlama gerektirir.  Sorunları ve alınacak tedbirleri tartışmak için zaman yoktur.  Ana taktik hedef durumu kararsızlıktan kararlı hale getirmektir.  Sıklıkla bunun itina ile yapılması gerekir.

The unstable static states demand caution and possibly careful planning during a long time before acting. There is more time to discuss and analyse the problems and the measures. A main tactical aim is to bring the situation from being unstable to being stable. This often has to be done with care.

Kararlı durgun durumlar pek acil bir durum yönetimi değildir.  Sorunlar yaraların sarılması ile ilgilidir

The stable static states are hardly an emergency management problem. The problems concern recovering.

...

REFERENCES:

[1] Lars Fredholm, Emergency management as co-ordinated cognitive modelling on different time-scales

Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Sweden, Report 3111, Lund 1999

management coping problem in emergency situations

 

management coping problem in emergency situations [1]

 

Background, problem and aim

Coping with the initial phase seems to be a critical condition in establishing management and how the management continues to deal with the emergency or the disaster.

The main reason for the problem is that necessary anticipation, totality coping and longterm management are established too late in relation to the dynamics of the emergency or disaster. Connected to this there are two specific problems.

The first is that it seems difficult to anticipate drastic, unforeseen developments of an emergency or disaster and that the management steps are established too late. 

The second is that decision makers seem to be absorbed with visible problems in a short term and carry out decision making minute by minute.

Coping with different kinds of emergencies

 The dynamics of emergencies can be divided into three main categories(Fredholm 1991).

Dynamic states are characterised by rapid changes and mostly by expanding developments. A fire is a typical dynamic state.

Unstable static states are characterised by situations in stillness when the coping process starts. A rash move can start a changing and developing process. The stillness is a kind of an unstable equilibrium. An operation after a landslide is such a situation. 

 The dynamic phase has usually already occurred when the emergency management starts.

Stable static states are also characterised by situations in stillness when the coping process starts.   There is however a stable equilibrium.

Different decision making demands

These three main categories of emergencies involve different decision making demands.

The dynamic states comprise the most stressful situations. The decision making is under strong time pressure. An important tactical aim is often to stop the expanding development. Saving lives has to be done rapidly.

The unstable static states demand caution and possibly careful planning during a long time before acting. There is more time to discuss and analyse the problems and the measures. A main tactical aim is to bring the situation from being unstable to being stable. This often has to be done with care.

The stable static states are hardly an emergency management problem. The problems concern recovering.

REFERENCES:

[1] Lars Fredholm, Emergency management as co-ordinated cognitive modelling on different time-scales

Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Sweden, Report 3111, Lund 1999