Emergency management
as co-ordinated cognitive modelling
on different time-scales
Lars Fredholm
Department of Fire Safety Engineering
Lund University, Sweden
Report 3111, Lund 1999
Summary
This report is a result of the work in projects for The Swedish Rescue Services Agency and for The National Board of Civil Emergency Preparedness. The problem is defined as difficulties in establishing rapid and effective management in major fire-fighting and rescue operations. The analyses result in a view that emergency management can be seen as cognitive modelling. The management work of major operations consists of cognitive modelling on different time scales and co-ordinating such models. The work in one time scale is co-ordinated by cognitive modelling in a higher time scale.
The aim of emergency management is to achieve control. A basic condition for effective management is that cognitive modelling functions in the work of each engaged time scale.
A hypothesis is formulated based on bad experiences to establish anticipation, total and long-term management:
When there are difficulties in establishing rapid and effective management one main reason is that when there on one time scale is a need for co-ordination using mental models in a higher time scale, the cognitive modelling on this higher time scale is delayed in relation to the need on the shorter time scale.
