EEC report no.396

EEC REPORT No 396 TÜRK HAVA SAHASININ MODEL TEMELLİ SIMULASYONU (SMART PROJESİ)
ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Ali Rıza SARAL

Bu yazımda European Experimental Center’dan Herr TEWES’in 396 sayılı ‘Model Based Simulation of the Turkish En-Route Airspace - Project SMART’ adlı raporunda dikkat çeken noktaları belirteceğim. Yer yer Herr TEWES’in ‘Model Simulation of the BULGARIAN Airspace EEC Note 4/99’ adlı bir başka raporu ile karşılaştırmalar yapacağım.

I. GİRİŞ

EEC Report No 396 2005, 2010 ve 2015 yıllarına ilişkin üç ayrı grup simulasyonu içermektedir. Report No 396 bence biraz dağınık ve amacı Bulgar raporu kadar çok net değil.

Abstract:…main objectives of the study were a) a sectorisation which would fit for the traffic demands at around 2015 and b) capacity figures for these sectors

INTRODUCTION … to analyse the current ATC sectorisation and routeing schemes within the Turkish airspace against forecast traffic growth until 2015 and propose a new sectorisation plan suitable to existing and planned route network. …
…
new system is targeted for 2010. The simulation study has to provide a “survival plan” for the existing system until SMART becomes operational, and to provide a revised sectorisation plan for the new system up to the year 2015.

DHMİ’nin karşı karşıya bulunduğu güçlükler:
a. şu andaki trafiğin iki mislini geçen (‘3650 uçuş’)’a kadar çıkan 2015 tahminleri
b. 2009 yılında devreye gireceğini umdukları yeni ve modern bir ATC sistemi (SMART)
c. elde bulunan çok eski bir sistemle(insan ve makine) bu geçişin nasıl yapılacağı.

Simulasyon için DHMI’nin önerdiği sector planlamaları uçuş güvenliğinden sorumlu kontrolörlerin aşırı yüklenmemesini sağlamak için düzenlenmiş. Maalesef sonuçlar aşağıda:

4. RESULTS: EXERCISE REFERENCE-2003
The exception can be stated for the two Istanbul and the one Izmir sector, where the workload reaches severe levels already in the actual situation.

The chart above shows for the majority of sectors a RADAR controller loading ranging between moderate and heavy. This is valid as long as the 2005 traffic sample is used.

As soon as the 2010 traffic has to be handled several RADAR controller positions are stepping into SEVERE WORKLOAD situations.

SMART sistemi ile gelecek modern imkanlarin kontrolör üzerindeki yükü azaltacağı, öte yandan uçaklar arası min uzaklığın 8NM’e inmesi beklenmektedir.

With the SMART system implementation targeted for 2009, more sophisticated equipment would be available, leading to reduced controller workload, and a reduced separation minimum to 8 NM is expected.

Burada ‘expected’ kelimesinin seçilmesi raporu yazan TEWES’in aynı fikirde olmadığını mı ifade etmektedir? Ayrıca 8 NM’e geçilmesi kontrolör yükünü azaltmaz arttırır. Nitekim 2010 ve 2015 için yapılan simulasyonlar bunun mümkün olmayacağını ortaya koymuş ve simulasyona devam etme imkanı kalmamıştır. Bunun üzerine STRATEJIK SINIRLAMALAR konması zorunluluğu Herr TEWES tarafından belirtilerek uçuşlara bazı sınırlamalar konmuş ve ancak bu koşullarla olumlu sonuç elde edilmiştir.


II. STRATEJİK SINIRLAMALAR
Sınırlamalar konusunda Türk tarafının tereddüt içinde olduğu görülmüştür.
6.2. RADAR CONTROLLER PERCENTAGE WORKLOAD PER SECTOR
major contribution to the reduction of workload comes from the carefully applied restrictions at different places. Despite the fact that members of the working group have accepted restrictions only with a certain degree of hesitation
Avrupa’da uçuş işlemlerinin stratejik kısıtlanması genel kullanımdadır. Başka şekilde yüksek sayıda uçuşların emin ve düzenli idare edilmesi MÜMKÜN OLMAZdı. Bu Türkiye’nin geleneğine uygun olmayabilir fakat gelecekte flight levels, routes, times üzerine sınırlamalar koyması gerekecek.
In Europe, strategic restriction of flight operation is in general use. The safe and orderly handling of the high number of flights could not be possible otherwise. Turkey has a tradition of offering, as far as possible, an unrestricted flight path to the operators. In the future however, in order to cope with the increased traffic demand and to provide a safe service, it will be necessary to consider restrictions with regard to flight levels, routes and times more regularly.
Herr TEWES ile Türk tarafı arasında bir fikir farklılığı olduğu görülüyor. Yukarıda zorunlu olduğu belirtilen değişiklikler için aşağıda (if and when) ifadesi kullanılıyor. RAPOR BU NOKTADA TUTARSIZ. Ayrıca Türk tarafının sınırlamalara ihtiyaç olursa bu geçişin nasıl yapılacağı konusunda herhangi bir fikir belirtmekten kaçındığı anlaşılmakta…
As traffic grows yearly, solutions will be found gradually and constraints applied if and when necessary. The working group is convinced that useful and intelligent solutions will be tested and applied to assure the safe and efficient control of the increasing traffic and refrain from making specific suggestions in this area.

. saturation of the Istanbul sectors depend to a large extent on the traffic in and outbound Istanbul. Since no restrictions apply, a flight entering at high level will penetrate all existing sectors during its descent. Departing flights climbing to a high level will also penetrate all sectors. With strategic restrictions the number of flights per sector and hour can be reduced.

In order to overcome some excessive loadings of sectors it was decided to examine the effects of a strategic restriction on traffic to and from the airports LTBA (Istanbul) and LTAI (Antalya).

Her bir sector’deki uçuş sayısını azaltmak için uçuş işlemleri üzerine stratejik kısıtlamalar koymak gerekecektir. Bu en yoğun havaalanlarından kalkış/inişlere kalıcı kısıtlamalar konmasına ve aynı zamanda elde bulunan seviyelerin belirli yönlerdeki trafiklere sınırlanması şeklinde uçuş seviyesi kullanım kalıpları belirlenmesine yol açacaktır.
It will be necessary to introduce strategic constraints for flight operations in order to reduce the number of flights in each sector. This will lead to permanent restrictions for flights in- and outbound to the busiest airports, as well as flight level allocation schemes limiting the available levels for identified flows of traffic.

III. SEKTÖR KAPASİTE DEĞERLERİ
Simulasyonu yapılan sektorler için kapasite değerleri belirlenmesi Türk hava sahası simulasyonunun ana amacıydı.
3.6. DETERMINATION OF CAPACITY The definition of capacity figures for each simulated sector was one of the main objectives of the Turkish airspace simulation.

thresholds used by the RAMS simulator tool are based upon those applied by the EUROCONTROL ATC CAPACITY Analyser (CAPAN) which in turn have been validated by several real-time studies.
İlan edilen kapasite değerlerinden DHMI’nin yalnızbaşına sorumlu olduğu vurgulanır. Burada EEC kendini güvence altına almaktadır. Bu ifadeler Bulgar hava sahası raporunda da aynen vardır.
Note 2 It is stressed that the national Turkish administration (DHMI) is solely responsible for the issue of declared capacity values in respect of its sectors. It is obvious therefore that the values presented and / or discussed in this document should, under no circumstances, be taken as being declared capacity figures.


IV. TEWES’İN ESNEKLİK UYARILARI
SMART projesi çerçevesinde bütün Türkiye’nin Ankara’daki merkezden yönetilmesi İzmir’deki hardware yetersizliği gibi durumlarda esneklik sağlayacaktır.
4. RESULTS: EXERCISE REFERENCE-2003
increased flexibility of having a single centre within which re-sectorisation can be achieved easier to give a balanced workload to all ATC sectors is identified. The implementation of the SMART Project will be positive from this point of view, İzmir hardware problem
Ege denizi ve Orta Anadolu – Suriye üzerinden güneye giden iki ana yol üzerindeki yük ekonomik nedenlerle değişkendir bu nedenle Türk ATC organizasyonu her iki olasılığı karşılayabilecek esnek yapıya ve kapasiteye sahip olmalıdır.
5. COMPARISON OF RESULTS SCENARIO 2005
there are different options for over-flying traffic across Turkey. The main route options … the Aegean Sea Routes in Dec2003, and later the new routes connecting Syria and Turkey in May 2004. The two are incompatible with each other, meaning that flights cannot make use of both options during the same flight. Strategic planning from the aircraft operators take into account not only the length of the route flown, but also the total cost of route charges for the set of countries concerned. Since route charges may change with time, so the decisions on the part of aircraft operators to fly one route or another may also change. Therefore it is necessary to ensure that the Turkish ATC organisation is capable of coping with a high traffic demand on both main routes.
Orta ve alçak sektorlerde dikey hareket ve/veya RADAR headingleri nedeni ile ilgili RT görevleri bir sektörü doyma noktasına çok daha çabuk getirebilir.
Medium and Low sectors quite often show something very different. Here the high percentage of traffic in vertical movement and/or on RADAR headings, the associated high amount of RT tasks, brings a sector much faster into a situation of overload.
Trafik seviyesi günün 24 saati değişir ve aynı zamanda mevsimsel değişiklikler vardır. Sektörlerin birleştirilmesi ve ayrıştırılması sürekli devam eden bir süreç olacaktır ve bunun olabildiğince dinamik olması gerekir.
The level of traffic changes during the 24 hours of the day and there are also seasonal changes to the levels. Merging and splitting sectors will be a continuous process and this should be made as dynamically as possible.

In the eastern part of Turkey the sectors are very large, and this is a special constraint, since monitoring becomes difficult if the geographical area is too large. It is recommended that this is assessed further in real-time tests. It should be highlighted as well, that in case of a different runway in use at, for example, Istanbul, the sectorisation plan for the lower and intermediate Istanbul en-route area could require modifications.
Eski Istanbul Alan Kontrol Merkezi için 5 sektor ‘test edilen koşullar altında’ yeterlidir. Yine de, sistemin trafik tepeye vurduğu zamanlar ya da trafiğin giderek artışının BEKLENTİLERİ AŞMA durumu için bir ek sektör ile birlikte tanımlanması tavsiye olunur.
Five sectors within the former Istanbul ACC have proven sufficient under the circumstances tested. However, it is recommended to configure the system with one additional sector available for peak periods or in case the traffic growth exceeds expectations.

The 2015 scenario shows in the different exercises that route preference of flight operators have an important effect on the sector loading. Additional sectorisation capability should be made as dynamic as possible to relieve temporary overload.

V. REFERANS ALINAN VERİLERLE İLGİLİ SORUNLAR, ASKERİ, HAVA DURUMU VERİLERİNİN İHMAL EDİLMESİ VE İMZA-KİŞİSEL VİCDANİ SORUMLULUK

Referans senaryoda kullanılan alet ve çalışma prosedürleri 2003 yılında Ankara, Istabul ve Izmir’de kullanılanlardır. Askeri faaliyetler dikkate alınmamıştır. Oysa Bulgarlar simulasyonlarında hem askeri faaliyetleri hem de hava muhalefeti durumlarını dikkate almışlardır. SMART’ın büyüklüğü düşünüldüğünde bu önemli bir eksikliktir ve sonuçlar değerlendirilirken bu nedenle fazladan bir hata payı bırakmak gerekir.

Simulasyon’larda Aralık 2003, Mayıs 2004 ve 29 Ağustos 2003 verileri kullanılmıştır. Bulgar simulasyonunda yalnız tek bir veri, Ağustos’un 3. haftası kullanılmıştır. Her ne kadar Aralık ve Mayıs verilerinin kullanılması farklı rotaların kullanımı amacını gütse de sonuçların değerlendirilmesi ve nesnel sonuçlara varılması açısından ortalığı karıştırmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacının net olmaması yapılış şekline ve sonuçların yorumlanmasına da yansımıştır.

3.2.2. Scenario 2005
The first takes advantage of the new Aegean Sea routes implemented in December 2003. …
second routeing keeps the main flow of traffic on the routes used in the Reference exercise, except now making use of new routes implemented in May of 2004.

3.3. TRAFFIC SAMPLES 3.3.1. Introduction
The working group agreed during the simulation kick-off meeting that for the reference exercise a 24-hour traffic sample taken from legal recording of the 29th of August 2003, prepared and delivered by the DHMI, would be used. Also well agreed during this meeting was that the exercises in scenarios 2005, 2010 and 2015 should be based on a traffic sample already used for the SAAM analysis of the same airspace.

The traffic samples were extensively checked and validated by the members of the working group during several meetings. The following is a short description of the traffic samples used within the different scenarios.

3.3.2. Actual 2003 Traffic Sample The traffic sample extracted from legal recordings of the 29.08.2003 by the DHMI was simulated with the reference exercise. It contained a total of 1848 flights.

3.3.3. Future 2005 Traffic Sample This traffic sample was already used in the SAAM analysis made for the same airspace. It contained at total of 2033 flights which represented an increase of ten percent in regard to the reference traffic sample. With the exception of scenario Fut-2005D1 and Fut-2005E1 which used a traffic distribution known as route-network May2004 all other exercises were using a traffic distribution defined as Dec2003 flows.

3.3.4. Future 2010 Traffic Sample In order to develop a traffic sample as realistic as possible for the 2010 scenario the working group made the following decisions: • The traffic sample used for the 2005 scenarios was increased by an annual rate of five percent, which over five years made a total increase of 34 percent or 691 flights. Thus the traffic sample is composed of 2724 flights. • The distribution of the traffic on different route network used was for exercises Fut-2010A and Fut-2010B the so called Dec2003 and for the exercise Fut-2010A1 and Fut-2010B1 the May2004 distribution.

3.3.5. Future 2015 Traffic Sample As a result in scenario 2015 the traffic sample contained 3650 flights. Three simulation runs were made with this traffic sample using alternatively the Dec2003 or May2004 traffic distribution.
2015 simulasyonlarının nispeten az trafik yükü olan simulasyonlarla yapılmış olması ilginçtir. Sonuçların bu verilerle dahi stratejik sınırlamalar olmadan başarıya ulaşamaması ilgili herkesin gözünü açmalıdır.
the case of Turkey we have compared two main traffic distribution schemes, referred to as Dec2003 and May 2004 respectively.

Bulgar raporunun sonunda TEWES’in ismen iki Bulgar temsilcisine (kontrolörüne?) teşekkür etmesi ilginçtir. Bu kişiler isimlerinin belirtilmesini kabul ederek vicdani sorumluluk almışlardır. DHMI hazırlanan her raporda katkıda bulunanların kişisel vicdani sorumluluk yüklenmelerini teşvik etmelidir. Türk tarafından isimlerin eksikliği yalnız EEC Report No 396’ya özgün bir durum değildir. Daha önceki raporlarda da olan genel bir tercih ve bence GENEL BİR ZAFİYETtir.

VI. RADAR KONTROLÖRÜ İŞ YÜKÜ
Aşağıdaki cümlede INSIGHT yerine INSIDE kullanılmış. Nedeni anlaşılmıyor.

RADAR kontrolörü işyükünün dağılımına daha derin bir bakış(basiret) vermek amacıyla yalnız bir deneme yapıldı.
6.3. RADAR WORKLOAD BREAKDOWN BY CATEGORY working time per category
Only one exercise has been selected to give a further INSIDE to the breakdown of the RADAR controller workload.

Having regard to the Figure 35 showing the percentage workload for each RADAR controller, the chart above gives a further INSIDE to what happened on each sector during the same period.
R/T Receive/Transmit görevinin RC’nin en çok zamanını aldığına dikkat çekilmekte fakat bunun nedenleri üzerinde durulmamaktadır. Yalnızca bu noktada önemli bir işyükü azaltması sağlanabileceği belirtilmektedir. Herr TEWES bir kere daha ÜSTÜ KAPALI ifadeler kullanmakta ve büyük olasılıkla gördüğü bir sorunun resmileşmemesine katkıda bulunmaktadır.
Konu İNGİLİZCE YETERSİZLİĞİ ve DİL SORUNU olabilir…
As a reminder the workload on a sector is broken down into five different … First, there is no workload recorded for co-ordination tasks, because they are performed by the planning controller only. Second, the outstanding part of the R/T time spent in each sector is highlighted, despite the fact that all tasks, except RADAR tasks, have been reduced twice during the course of the simulation. Clearly this is an area where solutions to workload reductions can be found.

VII. HAVAALANLARI İLE İLGİLİ SORUNLAR
Öngörülen trafik büyümesinin yalnız havaalanları ve terminal alanlarına ilişkin hava trafik hizmeti yeterli olursa mümkün olacağı dikkate alınmalıdır.
it should be noted that the forecast traffic growth will only be possible if the capacity of the airports, as well as that of the Air Traffic Control Service for Terminal Areas is sufficient.

ATC organisation of the Terminal Areas has been partly covered by TMA Projects carried out by EUROCONTROL for Istanbul, Izmir and Antalya.
Dalaman’da da önemli gelişme olacağı unutulmamalıdır.
Runway capacity has been separately addressed in several airport projects by UROCONTROL, including Istanbul and Antalya. But important as well is the fact that in future, for example LTBJ, will have to deal with traffic figures reaching 50% of the Istanbul values of today.

VIII. İZMİR KONTROL MERKEZİNDEKİ SORUNLAR
İzmir on-route sektöründe SSR kodunun RADAR kontrolörü tarafından girilmesi Flight Data Management iş yükünün fazla çıkmasına neden olmaktadır. (PC nerede?)
The relatively high amount of FDM in the Izmir-En-route sector is due to the fact that the SSR code input has to be done by the RADAR controller.

4. RESULTS: EXERCISE REFERENCE-2003
traffic load is poorly balanced with too high workload for the Izmir sector and the Istanbul sectors. Especially for Izmir this constitutes a risk if the traffic on the Aegean Sea routes pick up and seriously increases the demand on the airspace controlled by Izmir, since opening of new sector(s) is restricted by hardware shortage,

IX. PLANNING CONTROLLER VS RADAR CONTROLLER SORUNU
3. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY 3.1. THE TURKISH EN-ROUTE AIRSPACE
the appropriate ATC tasks. Each task is then allocated to PC, RC or both according to the sector manning and the duties specified for each sector.

Bulgar simulasyonunda PC denemelere katıldığı halde Türk simulasyonunda işi yavaşlatan unsurun RC olduğu belirtilerek PC atılmış. O zaman niye Bulgar simulasyonunda da atılmadı PC? Raporumuzun sonuçlarını değerlendirenlerin PC ve PC ile RC koordinasyonuna ilişkin yüklerin ihmal edildiğini de dikkate almaları gerekir. Bu durum sınırlamaların konması gerekliliğini ve aciliyetini bir miktar arttıracaktır.
… there is no workload recorded for co-ordination tasks, because they are performed by the planning controller only.

No co-ordination tasks are recorded for the Radar Controller; they are normally performed by the Planning controller.

… there is no workload recorded for co-ordination tasks, because they are performed by the planning controller only.

No co-ordination tasks are recorded for the Radar Controller; they are normally performed by the Planning controller.

X. STRİPLER SORUNU HALA VAR MI?
Bulgar raporunda Herr TEWES striplerin otomatik basımını sağlayan sistemin aktivasyonunu açıkça belirtmiş (sayfa 55).
Manipulation of FDM screen including activation of strip printing system
Bu madde maalesef Türkiye raporunda yok. Yani Türkiye’de stripler otomatik olarak değil, inanmayacaksınız ama el ile hazırlanıyor olabilir. En azından raporların karşılaştırması bunu gösteriyor. Aşağıda belirtilen üç strip işlemi de otomasyonla ilgili değil kullanımla ilgilidir.
3.4. ATC TASKS … Flight Data Management: includes tasks of loading, preparing and discarding flight progress strips, etc., and also includes computer updates.

The specification and definition of all ATC tasks used in this study were developed by Turkish controllers and members of the DHMI as well as the EUROCONTROL EEC working group members. A list of the various sets of tasks used with this study is attached to this document.
Görevlerin getirdiği yükün üst sınırının belirlenmesinde Türk kontrolörler ile Herr TEWES arasında bir fikir ayrılığı olduğu görülüyor. Hava alanı çevresindeki TMA bölgesinde kontrolörlerin dayandığı yükün üst bölgeden bir miktar daha fazla olduğu belirtilmiş. TEWES’in yanıtı ise bunun yapılmakta olan simulasyonla ilgisi olmadığı şeklinde.
To assist in the interpretation of these loadings, approximate criteria, established for en-route sectors, are used to describe each loading: • Severe 1-hour loading: in excess of 70% • Heavy 1-hour loading: in excess of 55% • Severe 3-hour loading: in excess of 50% • Heavy 3-hour loading: in excess of 40% The general feeling is that these values can be, to some extent increased, when looking at TMA airspace (which was not the case for this simulation).
Aşağıdaki son cümle bir GARİP… ATC görevlerinin gruplandırılmasında bir garilik olmuş olabilir. Mesela strip printing ile ilgili yada Plandural controlörün simulasyonda ihmal edilmesi ile ilgili olabilir.
The working times are expressed in minutes. For each working position, the various ATC tasks are grouped into five main categories: conflict search, co-ordinations, flight data management, routine R/T and radar tasks (see paragraph 3.4 ATC tasks). The grouping of the various ATC tasks was made by the working group. It was achieved according to the logic of the group.

XI. ZAPKA’NIN RAPORU HALE GEÇERLİ Mİ?
1996 yılında J.P ZABKA Experimental Center’da sonuç kısmını aşağıda verdiğim raporu hazırladı. Automatic Strip printing çalışmaması ve planning controller ile flight data assistant olmaması sorunlarının hala düzelip düzelmediği yukarıda belirtmiş olduğum olgular nedeni ile kafamda devam eden bir soru… Bu nedenle sayın ZAPKA’nın raporunun sonuç bölümünün bir kere daha incelenmesi faydalıdır.

REAL-TIME SIMULATION OF TURKISH AIRSPACE
Executive Summary of EEC Report No. 301 EEC Task AR41(S05)
EATCHIP Task : ASM.ET1.ST01 Issued: August 1996 Author: J.P Zabka

When considering the fact that with the establishment of the new Ankara ACC the technical equipment will be much more sophisticated than today and therefore the workload for controllers will be reduced considerably, it can be said that there is still a certain buffer to safely handle a high amount of traffic.

Other results
Finally, in addition to simulation objectives, the experiment identified that :
· The fact that radar vectoring was not applicable outside TMAs (because controlled airspace in Turkey is mainly defined as 10 NM wide airways, within which it is not possible to apply a 10 NM lateral separation) contributed to a large extent to increased controller workload in all organisations, particularly when it was necessary to provide lateral separation between climbing or descending aircraft on the same route.

· The introduction of the FDP system appeared to generate high controller workload particularly for procedural controllers. This was the result of the combination of three factors :
i.) a lack of standard working methods with automated systems. This is not surprising as FDP is not currently used in Turkey ;
ii.) a sector manning (procedural, radar) not adapted to the traffic requirements. It was recognised that the procedural controller was working as an assistant controller, his main task being FDP data
input. It was identified that on all busy sectors, in addition to the assistant controller, there was a need for a planning function, the planning controller being the "key man" of the sector and having
the same qualification as the radar controller ;
iii.) a lack of automation of FDP systems at the Istanbul Ankara interface, as the distribution of FPL data (Activation, Modification messages) was limited to the sectors belonging to the same Turkish ACC. Data was provided to other sectors only after an intercentre co-ordination, followed by FDP inputs.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS
In the event that sector configurations with vertical division are introduced (assuming full automated FDP system), it is recommended that local operational rules and inter-sector letters of agreement be established to regulate the transfer of traffic between such sectors.
Such agreement should define :
· safe transfer levels between sectors;
· co-ordination procedures to establish transfer levels between sectors;
· data input rules governing the amendment of flight profile and sector sequence (e.g. PFL input).
It is recommended that on all busy sectors "I", "E", "Q", "AW", AE" a sector manning based on three controllers (assistant, planning, radar) be established.
It is recommended that further studies should include a review of current inbound and outbound traffic management of Ankara TMA taking into account a possible need for multiple holding positions.

It is recommended that further studies examine with the active participation of Turkish military authorities the application of a more flexible use of airspace and the application of radar vectoring outside TMAs.

Ali R+ SARAL